It is my pleasure to share this interview with my friend Doug Casey, the legendary author, investment newsletter writer and founder of Casey Research. Doug is about the nicest guy you could meet for a man in the doom and gloom business, and I think business is good. So without further adieu, here he is, the one and only. Watch:
For those of you who can’t sit down for all 30 minutes, I’ve included a few of my favourite sound bytes from the interview.
“There are several thousand so called mining stocks traded here in Vancouver. Most of them have nothing but a hope and a dream. Most of them don’t have a prayer of finding anything. So it’s fraught with danger for the average investor. All I can advise is to educate yourself. You’ve got to start reading books about geology and studying the markets, and then interviewing the guys that run these companies until you get a sense of who is real and who is a flake. That’s what you’ve got to do. Most people don’t do it, they just buy a stock because it’s touted to them by anybody from a friend who knows less than they do to a taxi driver, so of course they lose money.”
“It’s good to remember that the junior mining sector is the most volatile sector on the planet, by far, more volatile than the internet stocks ever where during in the nineties. Volatility is your friend, actually, it gives you the opportunity to sell and buy at radical extremes. Through the 70′s and 80′s the junior resource market moved upwards of 1000 percent as a whole then lost 95% of its’ value and then did the same several times in several cycles, so this is a wonderful opportunity it presents, and I wouldn’t say that it’s necessarily cheap right now, but I would say that the odds of a bubble being created are great, so I think this is a good time to start looking at quality issues.”
“At some point a bubble will be ignited in the precious metals, and it is entirely likely as people panic out of dollars, they are going to go into securities because at least theoretically, stocks represent a claim on real wealth, so you put those two things together, a boom in gold, and possibly, a boom in the stock market – not based on fundamentals, but just based on people wanting to get out of dollars, and you could have a super boom. I wouldn’t doubt that there are going to be some issues between now and if we talked again in 3 years that are going to have gone not just 10 to 1 but 50 to 1 even 100 to 1; it has happened in the past, it will happen again in the future. At the same time a lot of these stocks will blow up and dry away because the only gold they have is printed on the face of their certificate, they don’t have any in the ground.”
“If you want to speculate in something, and people are going to be forced to speculate in the years to come, just to hide from the consequences of the governments’ inflation of the currency, I think that junior mining stocks, for people that know what they’re doing, are one of the best places to be. I think there’s also likely to be a bubble that develops in biotech stocks, for a number of reasons, and I speak as a longtime amateur science buff, I’m friendly to those as well. And I’ll give you a third speculation that I think is worth while, and that’s being short bonds. And that’s a triple play if you’re short bonds at this point which are at all time highs. Interest rates have to go up, way up, which is inverse to the fluctuation of bonds, so thats number one. Number two, the dollar is going to collapse, so that’s also going to destroy bonds. Number 3, you have the default risk, and that premium is going to go up. So if you’re looking for one sure speculation over the next ten years get short long term government bonds. So those three, theres lots of good speculations, theres always a new train leaving the station.”
Special thanks to Cambridge House for sponsoring the interview, and don’t forget to sign up for Doug’s free Conversations with Casey.
I liked the question you asked about lower/middle class. I think his response was garbage. I respect Mr. Casey’s ability to predict changes in the financial markets, but the world he sees with absolutely zero government agencies sends chills down my spine. Must be my mild socialist tendencies that come naturally with being Canadian. There must be a reason he is in Argentina!
Hi Cam-
I have to say that I, too, at one time was very skeptical about how well a society could even function without a form of government, but one book really helped change that for me. Doug Casey attributed this book as one of the most important books he had ever read and so I became very interested. Immediately after I started reading it I knew why. The book is titled “The Market for Liberty” and it was written by Morris and Linda Tannehill. You can download its PDF for free through mises.org or even download the free audiobook from iTunes. I highly recommend it as it is easily one of the most thought-provoking books I have–or ever will–read. On top of that, it’s an easy and entertaining read! Do check it out.
Great interview. Really nicely done.
Re: Cam. There are numerous sources of wealth inequality. One comes from the expansion of the money supply. That is a subtle form of devaluation that punishes savers, and often has inflationary effects that hit people on fixed or low incomes. (You can see this in the rise of food prices in the last few years). Another comes from government agencies that are saddled with corruption. EHealth Ontario, Housing and Urban Development (etc). When governments redirect taxpayers’ dollars into the hands of a few select insiders, wealth inequality expands. Many government agencies are subject to corruption of this sort. In addition, many are outright incompetent, and incapable of fulfilling their mandate. (EHealth Ontario again). There are many other dynamics and variables at play, but the socialistic state is not a panacea to the economic woes facing lower income Canadians.
With respect to the CIA, FBI and other US agencies, many of those agencies are directly under the control of big business. If you research the backgrounds of the people who head up those agencies (and precursors like the OSS), you’ll note that it is a web of connections between government agencies, established money like the Rockefellers, investment banks, blue chip firms, oil, weaponry (etc). They do not have your best interests at heart, and often agencies like the NSA are put to use for purposes of commercial espionage to benefit well connected insiders.
Could you perform a transcript of the interview, please?
Great interview,
Excellent and penetrating questions that provide answers that affect us all. The insight provided is much needed. Too bad it wasn’t conducted next week with the recent movements in the markets. I’m sure greater insight could have been gleaned due to current events.
Watching this should be a prerequisite to any economics class. Of course, it would be inflammatory in most schools because of it’s opposition to Keynesian indoctrination. Heh, that’d be a good thing.
Thanks Tommy!
hahahahahhahaha! What a joke.
Casey had a few interesting things to say about the U.S. state of affairs. If he is the son of former CIA chief and businessman, Bill Casey; I guess this is what you do while living off of the old man’s dough. Still a good interview if you do not include the Africa part. Cairo is on the Continent, yes; but really the middle east.
I could read a book about this without finding such real-world aprpoahecs!
fsIkyC fnvoeaskymzj
BxbL3n tsjgrqofumyz
Pingback: Best Doug Casey interview ever? You decide. — Stock Market Newz
Pingback: Best Doug Casey interview ever? You decide. - Gold Speculator
Pingback: Doug Casey Answers The Hard Questions About Hard Times | HoweStreet.com
Pingback: Doug Casey’s Advice for The Greater Depression – Interview with Tommy Humphries
Nice interview, great questions. Not your usual softballs questions.
Pingback: Excellent Doug Casey Interview: Braving the Greater Depression | FavStocks
Unquestionably consider that that you stated. Your favourite justification seemed to be at the internet the easiest thing to take into accout of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed whilst other folks think about issues that they plainly don’t recognise about. You controlled to hit the nail upon the top and outlined out the whole thing with no need side effect , folks can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
I used to be recommended this web site by my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written via him as no one else realize such distinctive about my problem. You are amazing! Thanks!